Biden’s policy shift added an uncertain, new factor to the conflict on Tuesday’s 1,000-day milestone since Russia began its full-scale invasion in 2022.
It also came after a Russian ballistic missile carrying cluster munitions hit a residential district of Sumy in northern Ukraine, killing 11 people and injuring 84. Another barrage of rockets sparked apartment fires in the southern port of Odesa, killing at least 10 people and injuring 43, Ukraine’s Interior Ministry said.
Washington is easing restrictions on what Ukraine can attack with its U.S.-made tactical missile system, or ATACMs, U.S. officials told The Associated Press on Sunday, after months of rejecting such a move over fears of an escalation of the conflict and a direct attack on Russia-NATO conflict. and.
The Kremlin was swift in its condemnation on Monday (Tuesday AEDT).
“It is obvious that the outgoing administration in Washington intends to take steps, and they have been talking about this, to continue to add fuel to the fire and provoke further escalation of tensions around this conflict,” said spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
Peskov referred reporters to President Vladimir Putin’s September statement in which he said allowing Ukraine to target Russia would significantly raise the stakes.
That would dramatically change “the very nature of the conflict,” Putin said at the time. “This will mean that NATO countries – the United States and European countries – are at war with Russia.”
The decision to allow Ukraine to attack targets inside Russia comes in the final days of Biden’s presidency, before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. Trump has said he will bring a quick end to the war, which many fear could force Kiev to make uncomfortable concessions.
The ballistic missiles, developed by US aerospace and defense company Lockheed Martin, have almost twice the strike distance – up to 300 km – of most weapons in Ukraine’s possession.
They carry more payload and have more precise targeting for precise attacks on airfields, ammunition depots and strategic infrastructure.
The United States has supplied Ukraine with dozens of ATACMS (pronounced attack-em) and they have been used to destroy military targets in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine, such as Crimea — but not on Russian soil.
What does Biden allow Ukraine?
Biden authorized Ukraine to use ATACMS to strike deeper inside Russia, according to a U.S. official and three other people familiar with the matter.
The longer-range missiles are likely to be used in response to North Korea’s decision to send troops to support Kremlin forces, according to one of the people familiar with the development. Pyongyang’s troops have apparently been deployed to help the Russian military drive Ukrainian forces out of Russia’s Kursk border region, where they launched an incursion in August.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly discuss the US decision.
It was the second time that Washington expanded Ukraine’s authority to use its American weapons systems inside Russian territory.
In May, after a Russian offensive on the Kharkiv region threatened to reduce Ukrainian forces, Biden authorized the use of the HIMARS system — with a range of 80 km — to counter that advance. That decision helped Ukrainian soldiers to stabilize the fighting for a time by forcing Russian forces to withdraw military assets.
Why does Ukraine need longer-range weapons?
Ukraine is looking to its Western allies for longer-range weapons to shift the balance of power in a war in which Russia has better resources, and to attack precision air bases, supply depots and communications centers hundreds of kilometers over the border.
They hope the weapons will help blunt Russian air power and weaken the supply lines it needs to launch daily attacks on Ukraine and sustain a ground military offensive against Ukraine.
If used at Kursk, the weapon would likely require Russian forces preparing for counterattacks to suppress valuable equipment and manpower and complicate battle plans.
Instead of Western weapons, Ukraine regularly attacks Russia with home-made weapons, with some capable of traveling up to 1,000 km, but still not in sufficient quantities to cause serious long-term damage.
Will the decision change the course of the war?
Ukrainian leaders are wary of the announcement – and senior US defense and military leaders insist it won’t change the situation. They also noted that Russia had moved many key assets out of range.
“I don’t believe that one capability will be decisive, and I stand by that comment,” said US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, noting that the Ukrainians have other means of striking long-range targets.
Analysts also suggested the impact could be limited.
“Today, many in the media are talking about the fact that we have received permission to take appropriate actions. But blows are not delivered with words. Such things are not announced. The rockets will speak for themselves,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from the announcement.
The effect of the decision depends on the rules for the use of weapons.
Ukrainian defenders “bend, but do not break” in fierce battles
If the strikes are allowed across Russia, they could significantly complicate Moscow’s ability to respond to demands on the battlefield.
If strikes are limited to the Kursk region, Russia could move its command centers and air units to nearby regions, blunting the effect of those logistical challenges. It would also mean that many of the valuable targets that Ukrainian officials have expressed a desire to hit are still out of reach.
In any case, Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Charlie Dietz noted that ATACMS would not be the answer to the main threat Ukraine faces from Russian cruise bombs, which are fired from more than 300 km away, beyond the range of ATACMS.
What are the key remaining questions?
Besides the fact that it is unclear what, if any, restrictions the US will impose on the use of weapons, it is also unclear how much the US will give Ukraine.
While the US has provided ATACMS to Ukraine in various military aid packages, the Defense Department will not disclose how many have been sent or exactly how many of these missiles the Pentagon has. Estimates suggest the US has a number in the low thousands.
The recent US election raises questions about how long this policy will be in place. Trump has repeatedly criticized the Biden administration’s spending to support Ukraine — and he could undo moves like this one.
On the other hand, it is also unclear whether other allies will act: the decision could prompt Britain and France to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles, also known as SCALP missiles, with a range of 250 km.