2024 US election: These seven battlegrounds are the only ones that really matter

The seven key battleground states were the only contests in the country where both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris they were considered to have a real chance of winning and were therefore the key to the presidential race.
And just like they were in 2020 when Joe Biden won Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin by less than 45,000 votes combined to reach the The white houseswing states were key in giving Donald Trump a second presidential term.

Electoral votes: 19
result in 2024: Trump’s victory
result 2020: Biden’s victory
2016 result: Trump’s victory

Arguably the most important battleground thanks to its 19 Electoral College votes (one less than it had in 2020), Pennsylvania was one of five states that Biden flipped to defeat Trump in the last election.

But this year it turned red once again. It was the third of the swing states to be called and pushed Trump within touching distance of the magic number of 270 electoral votes.

Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris arrives Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, for a campaign appearance in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/Sam Morris)
Kamala Harris once had a small lead in the polls for Pennsylvania, but ended up losing the key state. (AP)

Electoral votes: 16
result in 2024: Trump’s victory
result 2020: Trump’s victory
2016 result: Trump’s victory

North Carolina has only voted Democratic once since the 1980s, when it sided with Barack Obama in 2008, but the Harris campaign saw it as a real opportunity to go blue this year.

However, those hopes were dashed. North Carolina was the first of the swing states to be called, and Trump predicted it would keep it and its 16 Electoral College votes.

Donald Trump arrives at a campaign rally at the Butler Farm Show, Saturday, October 5, 2024.
North Carolina threatened to be another toss-up, and ended up siding with Trump. (AP)

Electoral votes: 16
result in 2024: Trump’s victory
result 2020: Biden’s victory
2016 result: Trump’s victory

Georgia was the second swing state to be named this year and was the first state that Donald Trump asked Democrats to take back.

Biden won by less than 12,000 votes in 2020, one of the closest and most important contests of the election.

It was the only time the state had voted Democratic since 1996, and it returned to form in 2024, when Trump claimed it back.

Electoral votes: 15
result in 2024: Trump’s victory
result 2020: Biden’s victory
2016 result: Trump’s victory

Another of the five states Biden won in 2020, Michigan has voted blue in every election since 1992 with the exception of 2016, when it was key to sending Trump to the White House.

It happened again this time, and the state went back to the Republicans.

Electoral votes: 10
result in 2024: Trump’s victory
result 2020: Biden’s victory
2016 result: Trump’s victory

An indicator of how important Wisconsin is? Republicans chose the traditionally Democratic-leaning state to host their national convention earlier this year.

Much like fellow Great Lakes state Michigan, Wisconsin has seen red only once recently, when it played a key role in Trump’s 2016 victory.

And just like their neighbors, voters here turned to Trump again – the president was elected before sunrise by a margin of about 31,000 votes.

The Republican National Convention was held in Wisconsin. (Nine)

Electoral votes: 11
result in 2024: TB
result 2020: Biden’s victory
2016 result: Trump’s victory

Arizona was a landslide victory for Biden by the narrowest of margins — only about 10,500 votes separated him and Trump here in 2020.

The Sun Belt state has voted Democratic only twice since the 1970s, and while it has yet to be called in 2024, Trump was leading by about 5 percent with two-thirds of the vote counted.

Biden
Biden’s narrow victory in Arizona was key to the 2020 election. (AP)

Electoral votes: 6
result in 2024: TB
result 2020: Biden’s victory
2016 result: Clinton’s victory

Nevada is the smallest battleground state according to Electoral College votes.

While the last four elections went blue, just over 30,000 votes separated Biden and Trump here in 2020.

Like Arizona, it has yet to be called this year, but Trump has a margin of 5 percent, this time with just shy of 90 percent of the vote.

Nevada has consistently voted blue in recent years, but Harris faces an uphill task to keep the state going. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

How many battleground states did Trump need to win to become president?

With all other states (and the District of Columbia) playing to expectations, Harris and Trump were essentially guaranteed 226 and 219 electoral votes, respectively – 44 and 51 short of victory.

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In the end, winning Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania was enough for Trump to win.

Especially Pennsylvania, with its 19 Electoral College votes, was crucial.

If Democrats had been able to win the Keystone State, Trump’s path to victory would have been narrow: If Michigan followed suit, Harris would only need to win Wisconsin (or Arizona) to take the presidency.

Known as the “Blue Wall,” it was touted as Harris’ most likely path to victory, but was ultimately blocked by Trump’s success in states Biden won four years ago.

Indeed, that entire trio blushed in what turned out to be a pretty comprehensive victory for Trump in the Electoral College.

Carrying only three battlegrounds could have been enough for Harris or Trump to win the election. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

Have any other countries changed hands?

No, and it was always highly unlikely.

Still, there were several other states where Trump and Harris weren’t too far apart in the polls.

Florida used to be hotly contested, and was the front-runner (a state whose result mirrored the outcome of every presidential election) between 1996 and 2016.

But now it’s seen as a bit more of a GOP stronghold, with Trump winning in 2020 and his supporter-turned-opponent-turned-supporter Ron DeSantis serving as governor from 2019 — and fittingly staying red this year.

Texas is another fascinating case.

Although he has gone Republican since 1980, Trump’s margin of victory four years ago was the smallest for a GOP candidate since the 1990s. However, he managed to retain the state once again in 2024.

On the other side of the political spectrum, Minnesota loomed as a potential battleground even though it is the state with the longest active Democratic voting streak, remaining blue since 1976.

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